If the improbability principle factors into this, then lawyers should start using it in the courtroom.
Personally, for me, the evidences for the Restoration of the Gospel indeed do factor in. But only after a spiritual testimony. The explanations for some of those that critics bring up, to me, are exceptionally weak. I still think Bountiful being "nearly eastward" from Nahom to be a pretty good "bullseye". Still, I fully recognize that evidences simply don't work for critics and academic folks. No problem. I think the Lord designed it that way. Evidences help believers - not non-believers.
Sorry, this isn't very helpful or enlightening. But, it works for me.