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Thinking

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Everything posted by Thinking

  1. Thinking

    Linear growth in church membership

    I think that some members view a tapering off as an indictment against the Church. I don't. When a population reaches the saturation point, growth slows down. If a population curve was unaffected by other factors, every population curve would have the same equation. The saturation point for one population will likely be different than for another. These factors help shape the curve and have been since the Church was founded. Can new factors adjust the curve? Absolutely. Perhaps President Nelson is trying to create new factors that will delay the leveling off. There is a graph on lds.org that looks just like the one I posted (we used the same data). I suspect the Church has some statistics dudes working for it who have informed the brethren about this inevitable leveling off and they are trying to avoid it as long as possible.
  2. Thinking

    Linear growth in church membership

    25 years is small when compared to 189 years. The size of the increase is irrelevant to whether something is linear. You just repeated yourself. At the midpoint of a logistics curve the data seem to be linear. After the midpoint, the curve starts leveling out. Note the last five years the increase in members has decreased from the previous year. This is clear from the charts in the linked article and from your graph.
  3. I think the answers to these questions will be anecdotal.
  4. Thinking

    Linear growth in church membership

    Population growth tends to follow a logistics model. Initially the model appears to be exponential, but then it starts to level out. It's impossible for a population to grow exponentially indefinitely because of finite resources. The leveling off appears to be happening during this time period. Notice the bars below the line before 1990 and after 2013. Sometimes when you zoom in on a curve it might appear linear. I entered the LDS membership data from the original 6 members to 2017 into my graphing calculator and performed a logistics regression and this is the result. In order to see the curve through the data points, I plotted every 5th year after generating the equation. Using 1829 as t = 1, the equation is... Membership = 23948595.6827/(1+23689.5044e^(-.0574t))
  5. Thinking

    President Nelson and Change

    I believe that President Monson had diabetes. He did well to live as long as he did. Also, Bednar would be able to interact with Nelson enough to know how healthy he is.
  6. Thinking

    President Nelson and Change

    Do any of the recent changes leave the Church unrecognisable in culture and structure?
  7. Thinking

    Left Hand

    And of course it's impossible to edit what's inside the quote, right?
  8. Thinking

    Linear growth in church membership

    The mean growth for the 31 years (1987 to 2017) is about 321,000 and the standard deviation is about 67,000. That's hardly remarkably close to the same absolute number of people each year for nearly thirty years. Create a bar graph using yearly growth instead of total membership and you see what I mean.
  9. How many people who are not on missions have to stay with the same person 24/7?
  10. Thinking

    Left Hand

  11. Thinking

    Left Hand

    I listened to the recording. It seems so Law of Moses.
  12. Another thing that I believe causes concern for those in a faith crisis is the silence of the FP and the Q12 on the actual answers to the questions. Oaks' answer to a difficult question was, “When you are asked a difficult question, such as a puzzler about Church history, be honest and, if necessary, say you don't know. But then be sure to say what you do know: ‘I know that Joseph Smith was a prophet of God’." The explanations or answers to the difficult questions are left to the apologists and the anonymous writers of the essays.
  13. Except members are taught to apply the scriptures outside of their scope. How many times has D&C 9:7-9 been used to teach about study and prayer? Yet this was a response to a very specific situation. Oliver wanted to translate. In that specific situation I can't see how research could not be part of the answer. It seems to me that the believing spouse would need to verify that the spouse with the faith crisis is at least using factual information. I believe that it would be appropriate to broaden his words to any believer that has a personal relationship with someone who is in a faith crisis. In any case I can't see how research can't be part of the answer.
  14. I'm curious. It is illegal to make the recording?
  15. I was told not to do something. I chose to do it. The risk to the person who doesn't record the public meeting is not being believed about what was said. Some might say that there is great risk choosing in which religious message to follow.
  16. I know this isn't a perfect analogy but I remembered our closing on our house with the bank. When we sat down with the loan officers, one of them said, "You don't have to read each page. I'll show you where to sign and initial and this will go much faster." My wife laughed and replied, "Now you've guaranteed that he will read each page." I finished with, "If I'm borrowing this much money, I'm going to take the time to read everything to make sure it's what it's supposed to be."
  17. If a person never promised to not record a GA, does recording the GA make them not trustworthy?
  18. If I didn't know that there were four different versions of the first vision, why would I even try to find them? Did the Church hide them? No. Was it forthcoming? No.
  19. This is true. Giving a bad answer is probably where some of the pseudo doctrines come from. I think I've heard something like this before. Yes, that's it. "It will all be worked out in the next life."
  20. You should also note that I never used the word hidden. Just because something could have been found does not mean that it was easy to find, especially if one didn't know to look for it.
  21. You picked one example. I'll pick another. Has the Church been publishing articles about Joseph's polyandry for decades in the Ensign?
  22. The fact that Oaks classified the information as new is evidence that the Church has not been as forthcoming with that information as some would like to believe.
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