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Thinking

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About Thinking

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  • Birthday 06/07/1963

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  1. I served in Peru in the early 80's. Upon arrival, our passports were collected and stored in the mission home. In their place we were given an official copy of our passport. We were able to use this copy to pretty much do anything inside the country that required identification. In one rural town my companion and I were stopped by the local police and asked to show them our passports. They didn't approve of the copies and detained my companion and told me that they wouldn't release him until we could show them our passports. I contacted the mission home (not easy to do from a rural town in the early 80's) and they sent the passports. After the police released my companion, we sent the passports back to the mission home. From that point on, we planned our routes to avoid the police station. BTW, my companion told me that the police treated him more like a guest than a prisoner - taking him out to dinner among other things.
  2. Well that definitely changes the narrative. I had not heard this before.
  3. Or there are enough gay couples who are just looking for wedding professionals to hire. Certainly they will by chance enter the establishments of some wedding professionals who happen to be opposed to gay marriage.
  4. It will take 1/3 more male missionaries to equal the service time of the current number.of male missionaries. For example, 3 current male missionaries will serve a total of 72 months. 72/18 = 4 For every 3 current male missionaries, 4 will be needed to do the same service time if the missions are reduced to 18 months.
  5. The presentation of the endowment has gone through multiple changes.
  6. Nelson is a letter of the law President.
  7. Back in the 80's when I was a BYU student, the BYU Police were often unofficially referred to as "rent-a-cops." Most students didn't respect them, perhaps because of the many negative stories about them. My favorite was reported in the Daily Universe. I will paraphrase since I couldn't find the article. A graduate student was assigned to teach some undergraduate courses and was given a faculty parking pass. One day when he exited his car, a BYU police officer told him that students weren't allowed to park in the faculty lot. The student explained the situation, but the officer was not satisfied. The officer looked up the student's schedules (teaching and student), then waited in the lot for the next time he saw the car. When the student returned to his car at the end of the day, there was a parking ticket. Confused, he protested the ticket, and was told that he was issued the ticket during an hour when he was in class as a student. He was only allowed to park in the faculty lot during the time when he was actually teaching. He would then be expected to move the car to a student lot while he was in class as a student. The publicity from the Daily Universe article forced the BYU police to back off the student and he was not bothered anymore.
  8. Do you think it's possible that the "no geographical model works for us" was an interpretive paraphrase? After all, bluegrass did not put that into quotes. You did.
  9. I think that some members view a tapering off as an indictment against the Church. I don't. When a population reaches the saturation point, growth slows down. If a population curve was unaffected by other factors, every population curve would have the same equation. The saturation point for one population will likely be different than for another. These factors help shape the curve and have been since the Church was founded. Can new factors adjust the curve? Absolutely. Perhaps President Nelson is trying to create new factors that will delay the leveling off. There is a graph on lds.org that looks just like the one I posted (we used the same data). I suspect the Church has some statistics dudes working for it who have informed the brethren about this inevitable leveling off and they are trying to avoid it as long as possible.
  10. 25 years is small when compared to 189 years. The size of the increase is irrelevant to whether something is linear. You just repeated yourself. At the midpoint of a logistics curve the data seem to be linear. After the midpoint, the curve starts leveling out. Note the last five years the increase in members has decreased from the previous year. This is clear from the charts in the linked article and from your graph.
  11. I think the answers to these questions will be anecdotal.
  12. Population growth tends to follow a logistics model. Initially the model appears to be exponential, but then it starts to level out. It's impossible for a population to grow exponentially indefinitely because of finite resources. The leveling off appears to be happening during this time period. Notice the bars below the line before 1990 and after 2013. Sometimes when you zoom in on a curve it might appear linear. I entered the LDS membership data from the original 6 members to 2017 into my graphing calculator and performed a logistics regression and this is the result. In order to see the curve through the data points, I plotted every 5th year after generating the equation. Using 1829 as t = 1, the equation is... Membership = 23948595.6827/(1+23689.5044e^(-.0574t))
  13. I believe that President Monson had diabetes. He did well to live as long as he did. Also, Bednar would be able to interact with Nelson enough to know how healthy he is.
  14. Do any of the recent changes leave the Church unrecognisable in culture and structure?
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