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Bob Crockett

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About Bob Crockett

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  1. I am not trying rewrite history. Remember, I opposed Proposition 8. You're a social scientist. What's not to understand about statistics? 1. There is no statistic showing the extent of Mormon contributions to Prop 8, as religious affiliation is not a reporting requirement and it would be unconstitutional to require it. The estimations were made by sources hostile to the Coalition. But there is no denying that church members contributed, as I can see the contribution list for myself and recognize many names. 2. There is no statistic measuring the influence the Coalition's ads had on the election results. I have my opinion, you have yours. 3. The Pew poll is what it is. In terms of statistical significance, being a black voter was the most significant factor to predict a yes vote, and with that statistic, one can estimate over 700,000 black yes votes. That's over 70% of black voters. 4. The church says there are 771,464 total members of the church in California. Given that half that number is expected to be children, it is highly unlikely that the Mormon yes vote was more than 100,000. Things to remember here -- most Mormons are Republicans and thus are discouraged from voting in California, as their votes don't count. I proudly vote Democratic. 5. No statistical analysis will support a "what if" scenario. My point in all this at least in the thread is to refute the politically correct argument that blacks overwhelmingly support gay rights. They don't, and there has never been any proof of it unless you accept Daniel's and Gray's and your gut-feel approach to social science. I think a Mormon is more likely to support gay rights than a black voter. My gut feel for this is that, based upon my survey of reports, Mormons -- and not blacks -- got the lion's share of the blame for Prop 8. It is politically easy to dump all over a despised religion, as you and Gray and others here do, rather than the black community. That then leads to the next question, which I address in my Rutgers' article: Why do you criticize the church for getting involved with Prop 8? Why exactly? I am the wrong guy for you to be criticizing, as I support gay rights and marriage. But I laugh out loud and mockingly at how political correctness rules the roost in your neighborhood.
  2. Well, that's true, but being white was not a statistical factor of significance.
  3. You have misread the numbers. Without the black yes vote, it wouldn't have passed. Again, exit polling data which Julie doesn't think is worth much. She wants to stand on gut feel evidence. So, many on this board just seem to go with gut-feel instinct. Even the social scientists like california boy. Troublesome.
  4. I'm amazed. Facts don't matter? Evidence doesn't matter? My post focuses upon statistics and science, not your gut feel or my gut feel. If you want my gut feel -- yes, I think the Coalition had an effect. But: Exit pollers did not detect the LDS presence nor the advertising campaign as a significant factor. That would seem to be the only relevant evidence, not gut feel supposition. Exit pollers were looking for this stuff. Not significant. I'm surprised that you and others don't understand the meaning of most significant. The correlation factor is a mathematical number derived from sample size, a pre-determined significance factor and polling results. If something is determined to be "significant" unless it is a mathematical tie, there will always be a "most significant" and a "second most significant" if there is more than one. When I use the word "significant" I use it in a scientific statistical sense. Not a subjective gut-feel sense. And it is not the case that the government requires the collection of religious affiliation for contributions. There are no such statistics. There are estimations made by persons hostile to the Coalition. But they have no way of knowing who is and who is not a member of the Church. I had a friend contribute $25,000 through his business. The business is owned by Mormons and non-Mormons. What decision was made about that contribution? I have a friend who is head of his Muslim congregation and they made a contribution, which appears to be added to the Mormon number. I don't dispute that money was contributed by members of the Church. But focus on reliable evidence. Not PC anti-religious claims without bases. And I don't downplay the Church's role in this case. My interest is in statistical exit polling, and it surprised me and caused me to rethink opinions formed on the basis of many sources hostile to the church, like this Board. Again, I ask, since exit polling is considered to be rather standard data upon which to rely, why wouldn't you trust this data over supposition?
  5. Untrue. The most significant factor is the black vote. It is not up to debate. Unless you debate statistical proof. Perhaps you don't know the meaning of statistical proof, as you use the word "statistics" to denote money donated by members of the church. And, indeed, there are no statistics about money donated by members of the church. Church affiliation is not a factor collected. There was a malicious effort by a former member of the church in Cedar City to identify members of the Church from public contribution records, but it was highly inaccurate. I know about that effort as I was personally targeted for harassment for once a private website went up with my name on it, based upon public contribution records. I received unwanted harassing emails from former members of the church for my $5100 contribution. You say: "Many believe the money (and time) from Mormons was the single most significant factor in getting 8 to pass. They have statistics too." No, they do not have statistics. Otherwise you'd cite them. The only legit statistics are voter exit polls.
  6. Am I? Not true. My only point is what it is and nothing more. The single most significant factor was what it is.
  7. Objective Truth, Subjective Truth and Opinions

    There is no such thing as "truth," in that it is an eternal axiom that nobody will ever dispute. Even the prospect of actually dying is in dispute. There is evidence of truth.
  8. And I dispute your assertion. With statistics. Surely as a social scientist that has meaning to you. And bravo, as I agree with the ultimate outcome as the gays won in the end with the courts. Why do you want to continue to blame the church? The whole reason this has erupted in this thread is that somebody had the temerity to invoke the supposition that blacks support gay rights because it is similar to the struggle for racial equality. I dispute such a silly proposition. They are not the same. "Duh." Dispatch your political correctness with factual precision. I don't resent gays. I resent liberal smugness (getting uptight that a church can have a political opinion and money to spend on it), and I'm sort of a liberal.
  9. "The difference between the “yes” and “no” vote for Proposition 8 was 504,479 votes; the number of black voters who voted in favor of Proposition 8 was 718,997." Your opinion about the single most important factor did not emerge in the polling data. Being black was the single most important factor. There's no indication they were swayed by the Coalition's media campaign. But, then again, I ask, what is wrong with the media campaign? I opposed Prop 8. I still oppose not extending the right to marry to gays. And I will forever. But why must you make this point about the media campaign except to suggest there is something wrong with it? What is your point?
  10. Yes. It is called "statistics." The correlation factor for being a black voter was higher than anything else. That means it was the single most significant factor. Second highest factor: Being black AND a religious person. It is not a matter of opinion. It is a matter of science. Of course, you have to have faith in (1) the methodology and (2) the questioning process. Pollsters can mess up on that.
  11. It is a statistical fact that Pew reported that the 'single most important factor" in the passage of Prop 8 was being a black voter. Do you deny that Pew reported that? No exit poll revealed the Mormons as having an effect on the vote. Deny that as well? If so --- CFR. There were many facts, yes, but I'm focusing on statistically significant facts. I don't mean to impugn your intelligence, but there's a difference between the supposition of facts and statistically signficant facts. As far as not backing up my claims -- how about the Pew statistical poll results and a peer reviewed article, and articles I cite agreeing with my assessment of the poll results? Hmm. Stats is a science. It states a conclusion (a vote) and a significant factor in the vote (the black as a voter). The statistics get dicey in the way the questions are framed, but the LDS Church had nothing to do with the polling. Whereas I opposed Prop 8 (while supporting my priesthood leaders in getting out the vote for it at the same time; I had a personal appeal from my stake president and I was pleased to able to support my church when my personal politics disagreed; that is MY free will; when asked, I remembered my Catholic friends who oppose capital punishment only beause the Pope asked them to do so), I applaud the grassroots effort in getting out the vote for it. It was done the way it should be done. And, contrary to your supposition, voters have free will.
  12. Where? By the way, that isn't canvassing. Canvassing is having voter registration and calling on election day after having made contact on a door-to-door basis with a commitment to vote. Canvassing means going to the polls on voting day and getting lists of people who have voted and who have not, so you call those who haven't with whom you've made contact before. Did you do that? That is the Chicago method of getting out the vote, and the method the Coalition used in California. You contact on election day only those who previously committed to vote in your favor. It has nothing to do with handing out signs.
  13. Marisa Abrajano, Are Blacks and Latinos Responsible for the Passage of Proposition 8? Analyzing Voter Attitudes on California’s Proposal to Ban Sam-Sex Marriage in 2008, POLITICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY 63:922, 924 (2010), available at http://prq.sagepub.com/content/63/4/922. This is an article cited in mine which seems to challenge the PC correctness to which you seem wedded. You keep repeating over and over the mantra that the voter had to have been influenced by the Coalition's media campaign, and I want to know what is wrong with that? And, you say nothing, but your argument seems to suggest that voters lacked free will. Further, you just don't understand the statistical argument -- exist polls did not mention the influence. Rather, in the days coming up to the campaign black pastors were thumping the pulpit about getting the vote out for Obama and, and the same time, striking down the rights of gays. Blacks voted in huge numbers. WIthout their vote, Prop 8 would not have passed.
  14. I think that you are now descending to absurd anecdotal argument. I have nothing to say about your personal experience or the views of a particular black voter. My article's conclusion is based upon statistics. Either you have faith in the statistical method or you don't. In my view, statistics don't lie, and the Pew pollsters are neutral. And, it is quite true -- polling was spotty and concentrated, just like in your personal experience, where wards were strong. But, I might ask, what is wrong with ads and polling? Although I was against Prop 8, is there something wrong with the Coalition (mostly half Catholic and half Mormon) sponsoring such? If so, why? Do you think black voters lack free will in making voting decisions? That seems to be the assumption of liberals, who try to impose limits on campaign advertising. The voters just are stupid people who don't have any freedom of will. Frankly, that kind of smugness is an outrage. And I consider myself a liberal, usually voting Demo. As far as my article being a mess, well, there's always a critic. It has been quoted in major seminars on the topic; recently, at a Claremont Graduate University program on religious freedom by the headliner. And, my conclusion is based upon Pew statistics. And, no, I did not "twist" statistics. Keep in mind, I opposed Prop 8.
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